John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul )

John Rentoul

Bio Chief Political Commentator, The Independent; visiting professor, Kings College, London. Author: Heroes or Villains? The Blair Govt Reconsidered; Banned List
Location London
Tweets 224,8K
Followers 130,2K
Following 430
Account created 05-03-2008 21:14:27
ID 14085096

Twitter Web App : Essex Social Science Current Trend scenario is based on polls at 25 Oct; Corbyn Rally assumes Lab recovers half of Lib Dem vote share & Cons lose 11% of vote share (equal to loss during 2017 election campaign); Boris Bounce assumes Cons attract half those currently intending to vote Brexit Party

Twitter Web App : Deadline for postal vote applications 26 Nov (midnight)
Deadline for proxy vote applications 4 Dec (5pm)

iPhone : Dr Who like, the Tory source has turned into James Cleverly MP:
“A vote for Farage risks letting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street via the back door - and the country spending 2020 having two referendums on Brexit and Scottish independence. It will not etc etc etc

Twitter Web App : PM not wearing a seatbelt: fixed penalty notice and a £100 fine twitter.com/BorisJohnson/s…

Twitter Web App : Opinion polls got it wrong in 2017 because they got it wrong in 2015: pollsters over-corrected. My article from last year on the lessons independent.co.uk/voices/opinion…

Twitter Web App : John Rentoul On a historical note the last occasion Labour gained (as opposed to merely held) a seat at a by-election whilst in government was at West Toxteth in May 1924. All the by-election gains by governing parties subsequent to that have been by Conservatives: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1924_Live…

Twitter Web App : Electoral Calculus projection Con 394 seats, Lab 159, SNP 48, Lib Dem 27, Brexit 0 electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/userco…

Twitter Web App : Average of 6 most recent polls from different cos, polling 18-31 Oct, incl Panelbase:
Con 38%
Lab 25%
Lib Dem 18%
Brexit Party 10%
Green 4%
These vote shares (Scotland separate) could produce Con majority 138 twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/st…

Twitter Web App : PanelbaseMD) 's Twitter Profile">PanelbasePolitical @panelbase GB poll (changes since Oct 17-18)

Westminster
Con 40% (+4%)
Lab 29% (+2%)
Lib Dem 14% (-3%)
Brexit Party 9% (-2%)
Green 3% (NC%)

EU Referendum
Remain 53% (+2%)
Leave 47% (-2%)

Fieldwork Oct 30-31

Twitter Web App : Max Usher HKL Yes, I've checked Flavible: Con 380 (majority 112), Lab 159, SNP 49, Lib Dem 38 – but I know more about how Electoral Calculus works flavible.co.uk/userprediction…