Nate Silver (@NateSilver538 )

Nate Silver

Bio Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise ( Sports/politics/food geek.
Location New York
Tweets 25,1K
Followers 3,2M
Following 1,1K
Account created 27-08-2008 20:56:45
ID 16017475

Twitter Web App : If you want to be a good data scientist, you should spend ~49% of your time developing your statistical intuition (i.e. how to ask good questions of the data), and ~49% of your time on domain knowledge (improving overall understanding of your field). Only ~2% on methods per se.

Twitter Web App : A few times a year, I get asked to be a judge of student statistical projects in politics or sports. While the students are very bright, they spend WAY too much time using fancy statistical methods and not enough time framing the right questions and contextualizing their answers.

Twitter Web App : As with a lot of Trump's strategy, his impeachment defense may help Trump with his base. But that's not the same as helping him overall. Watch swing voters, among whom the signs aren't great for Trump so far.…

Android : Matthew Yglesias I dunno what you mean by "good enough", but Biden's a strong contender for the nomination, as is Warren, and most of the articles critiquing Biden's performance would be better if they focused on Harris or Beto or Klob or all the other candidates who are in fact doing shittily.

Twitter Web App : To be clear, I'm someone who thinks 1) Warren is also doing well and is at least a co-favorite to win the nomination & 2) Biden's strategy over Ukraine hasn't been good. But I'm not sure if there's a candidate other than Trump for whom strong polling is so dismissed by the press.

Twitter Web App : You can pretty much count on these strong polls for Biden in Wisconsin and South Carolina getting ignored since they dont match the media narrative.…

Twitter Web App : I'm just a dumb American so I'm wondering how dumb it is to say "we're probably going to get Brexit because Jeremy Corbyn is the Labour leader and he's woefully unpopular". (Something on the order of 20% approve / 65% disapprove recent polls.)…

Twitter Web App : Mark Harris The other night I saw a dude leave for *20 minutes* on a first date to take a business call. (While the appetizers had just been served.) He left his wallet on the table to prove he wasn't walking out / standing her up, which I think actually makes things worse.

Twitter Web App : Warren's team must be doing cartwheels. Nothing about Harris's strategy has made sense since her good 1st debate. Biden's strategy over Ukraine hasn't been good. Bernie IMO has had the wrong strategy from the start (i.e. doubling down on his ~15% base vs expanding his coalition).

Twitter Web App : And Harris! "Let's wait for the evidence" is at least a little more on-brand for an ex-prosecutor. But the Dems' position should probably be that there's *already* enough evidence for impeachment/removal based on Trump's remarks & the WH call transcript.…

Twitter Web App : Don't get what Biden's doing here. Maybe there's an very thin limb where you can support an impeachment inquiry but not necessarily removal from office. But you probably shouldn't be on that limb when the basis of impeachment is POTUS ginning up a scandal about you & your son!…

Android : Just witnessed a beer vendor attempt a middle-of-the-4th inning "last call" at Yankee Stadium, which I believe is the earliest attempted last call in Major League Baseball postseason history.

Android : It's like if an NFL team trades for a quarterback and their season starts out great and they go 6-1. You can argue, I suppose, that they should have traded for a *different* QB and that they'd be 7-0 if they had. But the burden of proof for that argument is pretty darn high.

Android : Why is it a bad strategy? It seems to be working pretty well! Public opinion has shifted a lot, even moderate 1st-term members are now solidly pro-impeachment, and new bombshells are dropping on the White House every few hours.…

Twitter Web App : What we do know is that the first 2 weeks have gone well for Dems on almost every front: D party unity is high, public opinion has swing in their favor, Trump's defenses are feeble and (most importantly) the fact pattern has been very unfavorable for the White House.