Rob Ford (@robfordmancs )

Rob Ford

Bio Politics Prof, Manchester Uni It is the folly of too many to mistake the echo of a London coffee-house for the voice of the kingdom. (Jonathan Swift)
Location Outer Qwghlm
Tweets 121,2K
Followers 30,8K
Following 2,2K
Account created 15-11-2010 21:16:04
ID 216122857

iPhone : Did a bit for the Observer on the many reasons why an election in December would be very unpredictable…

iPhone : Thanks to her immense poll lead at that time, Theresa May secured a landslide Conservative majority. As a result, she delivered Brexit, implemented her transformative domestic programme, and remains Prime Minister to this day

iPhone : 🚨 NEW: A new plan tonight to offer Boris Johnson the pre-Christmas election he craves. 🚨

The Lib Dems have drawn up a bill that would allow Johnson to secure a December election with a simple majority of MPs. Crucially, the SNP will back it.


iPhone : Polls are valuable, polls are important, they affect and shape the political weather and the actions of the players but seeing how excited some people get by them it’s almost like 2017 never happened...…

iPhone : Rob Ford Exactly. You only have to look at the volatility after it was clear wed take part in EU elections to see how quickly things change. And, at present, a lot (10%-17%) of those who voted in 2017 or the EU ref dont know who theyd vote for. Up in the air.

TweetDeck : The trend also underlines the risks of a snap election - public opinion has been incredibly volatile in the past year. Who knows what direction it would turn in an election campaign?…

iPhone : THREAD

Offshore wind has near limitless potential & is set to be competitive with fossil fuels within the next decade, as costs fall 60% by 2040.

Turbines will soon be as large as the Eiffel Tower.

Pretty amazing stuff from todays new IEA report.…

iPhone : 5. BUT the Labour to Lib Dem swing among this age group is around 19% since 2017. So in Labour-Lib Dem marginals (Sheffield Hallam, Bermondsey, Cambridge) this actually harms Labour quite considerably.

This seems confused.

iPhone : 4.. continued... so Labour gain 58,900 votes nationally in university towns. Averages 90 votes per constituency. Enough to swing a couple of seats.

iPhone : This makes no sense. Some basic maths:

1. 2.3m students. Assume 90% eligible to vote = 2.1m
2. 50% vote at home (TimesHigherEducation suggested roughly this in 2017). So 1.05m vote at Uni.
3. Turnout 57% in 2017. So 589,000 voters.
4. Labour have an average 10% lead among 18-24s.…